Wendy Dong, Sean MacDonald, and Ian Stewart
On October 7, FiveThirtyEight came out with an election update article titled “AreTrump’s Polls Getting Worse?” which discussed Trump’s decreasing and Clinton’s increasingnumbers in the polls. In FiveThirtyEight’s polls-only model, Clinton’s chances were 55% beforethe first debate and 72% after, as of October 3rd. Likewise, the polls-plus model shows Clinton’schances increasing from 55% to 68% after the debate as of October 3rd, and 76% as ofOctober 7th. Needless to say, there is no denying that the first debate moved voters in Clinton’s favor.
Around two weeks later on October 21, FiveThirtyEight came out with another discussingthe “4 Ways This Election Can End”, three of which involve Clinton winning. Based onFiveThirtyEight’s polls-only model, Clinton currently has a 6.6% lead in the popular vote and a87% probability of winning the Electoral College. In the polls-plus model, numbers went up to84% for Clinton. According to the article, this leaves four possibilities for the outcome of theelection: